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Widely different predictions in local election surveys

It would be hard to predict the election results of Norway's elections for county councils based on the surveys conducted the last couple of weeks because the results are all over the place.

The Labor party’s support has varied from 22.4 to 28 percent during the last couple of weeks. As for the Progress party, the support has varied from 13.9 to 20 percent.

The daily Dagsavisen has combined the surveys, and claims that the average numbers indicate that the Labor party will be the largest with 24.3 percent, the Conservatives the second largest party with 19.4 percent and the Progress party at a third place with 16.6 percent.

“This numbers appear to be very close to what I think will be the final election results. When an average is calculated on surveys which are done approximately at the same time, it presents a good picture,” said Frank Aarebrot, election researcher, to Dagsavisen.

The Socialist Left party will be about twice as big as at last local election if the average calculation of 15.5 percent is correct, and the Progress party may have the greatest support in a local election ever.


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